Journal Of Trend: 2013年投資巴倫周刊 - 分析( 2013 Where to Invest from Barron's Magazine )

無論哪種方式，進入市場，營運行良好的公司應該能夠提供更高的收入和利潤，即使在艱難的環境。明年我們所有的新的收藏能產生15％〜20％的總回報（包括股息）。仔細一看：( No matter which way the market goes, well-run companies should be able to deliver higher revenue and profits, even in a tough environment. All of our new favorites could produce 15% to 20% total returns (including dividends) next year. Here's a closer look: )

蘋果依然強勁，即使是本公司的股份已經下跌了23％，約為540，從9月的高峰705元。都不是近期投資者關心的問題 - 利潤率較低，供應緊張，管理的變革，iPad競爭，iPhone 5的地圖慘敗 - 是主要的。這是真的，蘋果的盈利增長已經放緩到了23％的稅率從一年前的100％以上，但考慮到公司每年$1560億在銷售，這是可以理解的。( APPLE is still going strong, even as the company's shares have traded down 23%, to around $540, from a September peak of $705. None of the recent investor concerns -- lower margins, supply constraints, management changes, iPad competition, and the iPhone 5 map fiasco -- are major. It's true that Apple's earnings growth has slowed to a 23% rate from more than 100% a year ago, but that's understandable, given the company's $156 billion in annual sales. )

Veteran UBS tech analyst Steve Milunovich 預估780元的目標價。蘋果只有11倍交易預計在當前財年的利潤為每股49美元，在2013年9月結束。除去蘋果的巨額現金持有的每股128美元，而有效的P / E只有8。( Veteran UBS tech analyst Steve Milunovich recently wrote that it's a "good time" to add to positions in Apple before year end, with the stock trading near its lowest price/earnings ratio in five years after two disappointing quarters. He carries a price target of $780. Apple trades for only 11 times projected profit of $49 a share in its current fiscal year, ending in September 2013. Strip out Apple's huge cash holding of $128 a share, and the effective P/E is just eight. )

即使實施後，股息 - 現在提供了1.9％的收益率 - 和適度的股票回購計劃，蘋果公司應該建立的速度每年40美元十億現金。較高的股息和更積極的股票回購計劃，在2013年有足夠的空間。可以發揮很好的投資者。( Even after implementing a dividend -- now providing a 1.9% yield -- and a modest buyback program, Apple should build cash at a rate of $40 billion annually. There's room for a higher dividend and a more aggressive share-repurchase program in 2013. Both could play well with investors. )

Barnes＆Noble 的書店部門佔主導地位的領域，對亞馬遜（AMZN）和蘋果公司的Nook電子閱讀器的單位是自己的。這些成績的取得，都不會反映在Barnes＆Noble的股價低迷，這是今年持平，約$14。商店現在控制了幾乎三分之二的國家的書籍零售貨架空間，並在4月結束的本財年預計將產生超過3億美元的稅前現金流。這商店值得當前股價，巴諾的股權價值僅為8.8億美元。( BARNES & NOBLE'S bookstore division dominates the field, and the company's Nook e-reader unit is holding its own against Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple. These achievements aren't reflected in Barnes & Noble's depressed stock price, which is flat this year at around $14. The stores now control almost two-thirds of the country's retail shelf space for books and are expected to generate more than $300 million of pretax cash flow in the fiscal year ending in April. The stores could be worth the entire current stock price -- Barnes & Noble has an equity value of just $880 million. )

Nook 部門是賠錢的，但反映了市場搶奪份額，巴諾尋求獲得其電子閱讀器得到更多的消費者的支持，然後賣那賺錢的數位內容，包括書籍，雜誌訂閱。微軟（MSFT）喜歡 Nook，已投資300萬元，今年該部門的17.6％的股權。這意味著，Barnes＆Noble的82.4％ Nook 的價值140億美元，或每股24美元。雖然這種計算可能誇大了Nook的價值，該部門可能是價值超過其隱含的價格為零的一個很好的協議。傳媒巨頭約翰·馬龍的自由媒體（LMCA）擁有約200萬美元巴諾可轉換優先股。The Nook division is losing money, but that reflects a market-share grab, as Barnes & Noble seeks to get its e-readers into the hands of as many consumers as possible and then sell them profitable digital content, including books and magazine subscriptions. Microsoft (MSFT) likes Nook, having invested $300 million this year for a 17.6% stake in the division. That implies that Barnes & Noble's 82.4% of Nook is worth $1.4 billion, or $24 a share. While this calculation likely overstates Nook's value, the division probably is worth a good deal more than its implied price of zero. One fan is media magnate John Malone, whose Liberty Media (LMCA) owns about $200 million of Barnes & Noble convertible preferred stock.

貝萊德在今年秋季讓人大獲信心，當詹姆斯·格羅斯費爾德的投資經理以9400萬美元在公開市場上購買近50萬股份，在過去的十年中最大的內幕購買。格羅斯費爾德，前首席執行官的普爾特公寓，也不會發表評論，但他清楚地看到貝萊德股份的價值，今年已經落後同行股價。BLACKROCK received a big vote of confidence this fall when director James Grosfeld purchased nearly 500,000 shares of the investment manager in the open market for $94 million, one of the largest insider purchases in the past decade. Grosfeld, a former CEO of Pulte Homes, wouldn't comment, but he clearly sees value in BlackRock shares, which have lagged behind those of its peers this year.

貝萊德，$193，在13倍估值為每股15美元，預計2013年利潤輕微折讓它的競爭對手，它產生3.1％。貝萊德是1號的投資經理，負責資產3.7兆美元。其 iShares 是全球領先的 ETF 供應商，交易所買賣 ETF 基金，占50%市場。BlackRock, at $193, is valued at 13 times projected 2013 profit of $15 a share, a slight discount to its rivals; it yields 3.1%. BlackRock is the No. 1 investment manager, overseeing $3.7 trillion in assets. Its iShares is the leading provider of exchange-traded funds, with half of the market.

The three main concerns about BlackRock are that it's too big to grow, that competitive pressure in ETFs from Vanguard will push down fees, and that longtime CEO Larry Fink, viewed as one of his industry's best executives, might leave for the top job at the U.S. Treasury Department. (See Feature "Madame Treasury Secretary?".)

多頭如摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析師馬修·凱利看到兩位數的收入增長，帶動 iShares明年。 Fink也被解僱，他希望成功，即將退休的美國財政部長蒂莫西·蓋特納（Timothy Geithner）的談話。 “我不會離開這份工作，”芬克說的最後一周。 “我會在貝萊德只要我的董事會希望我在這裡。”Bulls such as Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Kelley see double-digit earnings growth next year, driven by iShares. Fink has dismissed talk that he wants to succeed soon-to-retire Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. "I'm not leaving this job," Fink said last week. "I will be at BlackRock as long as my board wants me here."

通用動力公司是最有名的國防承包商，但與同業不同的是，它擁有一個寶貴非國防業務沒有反映在其股價。Gulfstream，一個領先的噴射機製造商的公司，生產通用動力公司的利潤近30％，這一比例應上升在未來幾年內，Gulfstream 生產的新的高級的 - 線平面的G650，它的售價為6000萬美元，從紐約直飛東京。GENERAL DYNAMICS is best known as a defense contractor, but unlike its peers, it has a valuable nondefense business that isn't reflected in its share price. Gulfstream, a leading maker of corporate jets, produces almost 30% of General Dynamics' profits, and that percentage should rise in the next few years, with deliveries of Gulfstream's new top-of-the-line plane, the G650, which sells for $60 million and can fly nonstop from New York to Tokyo.

通用動力公司，大約為67，看起來便宜，預計2013年利潤的10倍每股 $7.32 利潤。 Gulfstream 預計將產生超過每股 2美元的利潤。將有14倍的P/ E的貢獻，這私人公務機貢獻值通用動力公司每股30美元的價值。這表明，國防業務 - 包括坦克，裝甲車，和核潛艇 - 7倍市盈率估值。國防部的承包商面臨更嚴格的五角大樓撥款，但該行業可能會避免嚴厲的削減支出，假設國會和總統達成的預算協議。General Dynamics, at around $67, looks inexpensive, trading under 10 times projected 2013 profits of $7.32 a share. Gulfstream is expected to generate more than $2 a share of that. Put a P/E multiple of 14 on that contribution, and the private-jet business could be worth $30 per General Dynamics share. This suggests that the defense business -- including tanks, other armored vehicles, and nuclear submarines -- is valued at just seven times forward earnings. Defense contractors face tighter Pentagon appropriations, but the industry probably will avoid draconian reductions in spending, assuming Congress and the president reach a budget deal.

巴克萊分析師卡特科普蘭認為，通用動力公司可能是唯一的主要的國防承包商，經營利潤到2015年都會表現出較出色的。即將上任的首席執行官 Phebe 諾瓦科維奇，1月1日的最高職位，可能是一個積極的催化劑。會演變成什麼樣的公司？較高的股息，更積極的股票回購，甚至是 Gulfstream 的分拆。該公司已經拒絕了分拆的想法，但一些投資者認為諾瓦科維奇可能會重新考慮。谷輪公司的目標價：87美元。Barclays analyst Carter Copeland argues that General Dynamics could be the only major defense contractor to show higher operating profits through 2015. Incoming CEO Phebe Novakovic, who takes the top job on Jan. 1, could be a positive catalyst. What could be in store? A higher dividend, more aggressive share buybacks, or even a Gulfstream spinoff. The company has rejected the spinoff idea, but some investors think Novakovic might reconsider. Copeland's price target: $87.

摩根大通是一個最佳的一流的銀行，交易價格低於平均水平。在周圍42美元，其股份取，只是八次預計2013年盈利$5.31的份額。這是最低的價格/收益比率各主要銀行之一。JPMORGAN CHASE is a best-in-class bank, trading at a below-average price. At around $42, its shares fetch just eight times projected 2013 profit of $5.31 a share. That's one of the lowest price/earnings ratios among major banks.

摩根大通在其所有主要業務力量雄厚，包括交易和投資銀行，資產管理，私人和零售銀行業務，信用卡和加工服務。雖然花旗集團（Citigroup）（C）和美國銀行（BAC）等競爭對手不得不擔心生存在金融危機期間，摩根大通投資，以加強關鍵領域。很尷尬了600億美元的交易損失所造成的“倫敦鯨今年，”但CEO戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），類似的事件不會發生。 JPMorgan is strong in all of its major businesses, including trading and investment banking, asset management, private and consumer banking, credit cards, and processing services. While rivals like Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) had to worry about survival during the financial crisis, JPMorgan invested to bolster key areas. It was embarrassed by $6 billion of trading losses this year caused by the "London Whale," but CEO Jamie Dimon is determined that a similar event won't occur.

Ross Margolies of Stelliam Investment Management recommended JPMorgan in a recent Barron's interview ("How to Play the Economic Recovery," Dec. 3), saying it should benefit from market-share gains at the expense of weaker European banks. The stock trades at only a small premium to tangible book value. JPMorgan yields 2.9%

馬拉松石油是獨立煉油商，在股市中最強的產業集團之一，在2012年其中的領軍者。交易價格在60美元左右，股價可能達到82元，根據摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）能源分析師埃文Calio。煉油廠的繁榮得益於在美國中部和加拿大西部石油生產，這使他們能夠購買超低於世界價格原油，鞏固利潤率。這優惠的價格差距，預計明年仍在。MARATHON PETROLEUM is a leader among independent oil refiners, one of the strongest industry groups in the stock market during 2012. Now trading at about $60, the stock could hit $82, according to Morgan Stanley energy analyst Evan Calio. Refiners have benefited from the boom in oil production in the central U.S. and western Canada, which has enabled them to buy crude at a discount to world prices, bolstering profit margins. That favorable price gap is expected to remain in place next year.

即使它助跑，馬拉松命令不到7倍，預計2013年利潤每股8.77美元一個。在10月，它同意購買，這似乎是一個非常優惠的價格，巨大的BP墨西哥灣沿岸煉廠的煉油能力從38％，這將提高其能力。馬拉松的一大優點是它能夠傳輸管道和其他資產價格高到一個新創建的主有限合夥企業，MPLX（MPLX）。馬拉松賽的股息，2.4％，可能會在2013年上升。Even with its runup, Marathon commands less than seven times projected 2013 profits of $8.77 a share. In October, it agreed to purchase, at what appears to be a very favorable price, a huge Gulf Coast refinery from BP that will boost its capacity by 38%. A big plus for Marathon is its ability to transfer pipeline and other assets at high prices to a newly created master limited partnership, MPLX (MPLX). Marathon's dividend, now 2.4%, probably will rise in 2013.

諾華醫藥行業的盈利前景與一個被忽視的總和的部分故事。美元62 - 12倍，預計2013年利潤 - 瑞士製藥商巨頭在與全球同業交易。它的股票收益率3.4％。諾華公司的利潤今年預計將下降，部分是因為美國專利保護的blockbuster blood-pressure 藥物 Diovan 的損失。但盈利明年有可能上升。NOVARTIS combines one of the pharmaceutical industry's best profit outlooks with an overlooked sum-of-the-parts story. At $62 -- 12 times projected 2013 profits -- the giant Swiss drug maker trades in line with its global peers. Its shares yield 3.4%. Profits at Novartis are expected to be down this year, in part because of the loss of U.S. patent protection for the blockbuster blood-pressure drug Diovan. But earnings are likely to rise next year.

主要驅動力包括多發性硬化症，一種新的藥物Gilenya。諾華還擁有愛爾康公司是一家領先的眼部護理裝備，和Sandoz，世界頂級的仿製藥生產商之一。諾華公司並沒有得到太多的信貸愛爾康，它在2011年購買了一項協議，價值愛爾康約55億美元。伯恩斯坦藥物的分析師蒂姆·安德森寫道，諾華“有一個最佳的收入和EPS增長到2016年的配置文件”。他隨身攜帶的“跑贏大盤”評級和$71目標價。Key drivers include Gilenya, a new drug for multiple sclerosis. Novartis also owns Alcon, a leading eye-care outfit, and Sandoz, one of the world's top generic-drug makers. Novartis doesn't get much credit for Alcon, which it bought in 2011 in a deal that valued Alcon at about $55 billion. Bernstein drug analyst Tim Anderson writes that Novartis "has one of the best revenue and EPS-growth profiles through 2016." He carries an Outperform rating and a $71 price target.

Breakups have been a big industry story, as Abbott Labs (ABT), Pfizer (PFE). and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) have shed key units or split up entirely in moves that have played well on Wall Street. Novartis is cool to the idea, but it probably would gain more from a split than any other major pharma company.

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL has trailed Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM), its "supermajor" peers, in the stock market this year, with a decline of 8%, to $67. The shares look inexpensive, given the dividend yield of 4.4% and a 2013 P/E ratio below eight.

總部設在海牙，荷蘭皇家賭大在澳大利亞和其他地方的巨大的液化天然氣項目;，現在獲得約一半的能源輸出氣體。曝光擔心投資者有兩個原因：首先，大型液化天然氣項目的成本上升，運行到幾十億美元;第二，當前的鏈接可能會削弱對石油的液化天然氣的價格。然而，國際貿易的氣體 - 主要向亞洲市場 - 價格遠遠高於那些在美國 Headquartered in The Hague, Royal Dutch has bet big on huge liquefied-natural-gas projects in Australia and elsewhere; it now gets about half of its energy output from gas. That exposure worries investors for two reasons: First, the cost of massive LNG projects is rising, running into tens of billions of dollars; and second, the current link of LNG prices to oil could weaken. However, prices for internationally traded gas -- which mostly goes to the Asian market -- are much higher than those in the U.S.

LNG的擔心似乎有些過頭，皇家荷蘭有足夠的資金來完成現有的項目，即使油價下跌適度。荷蘭皇家看起來像一個低風險的方式，發揮能源市場。The LNG concerns seem overdone, and Royal Dutch has the wherewithal to complete existing projects, even if oil prices fall moderately. Royal Dutch looks like a low-risk way to play the energy market.

維亞康是一個局外人在炎熱的媒體部門。股份的MTV，尼克和喜劇中央有線電視網絡，在派拉蒙電影工作室的主人，是高達15％，今年至52美元，而迪斯尼（DIS），時代華納（TWX），哥倫比亞廣播公司（CBS），和新聞公司（NWSA，“巴倫周刊”的出版商）都獲得了30％左右。維亞康姆取11倍預測2013年的利潤，大幅折讓，較同業平均13。VIACOM is an outlier in the hot media sector. Shares of the owner of the MTV, Nickelodeon, and Comedy Central cable networks, and the Paramount movie studio, are up 15% this year to $52, while Disney (DIS), Time Warner (TWX), CBS (CBS), and News Corp. (NWSA, the publisher of Barron's) all have gained about 30%. Viacom fetches 11 times projected 2013 profit, a sharp discount to its peers' average 13.

的持續性評級下降的有線網絡，主要是尼克的股票都受到了傷害。牛市的情況是，維亞康姆正在穩步進行私有化通過一個傳媒業的最積極的股票回購計劃。這可能會提升股票於2013年。維亞康姆公司購回其在9月結束的財年中，10％以上的股票，並預計在2013財年可比回購。 The shares have been hurt by persistent rating declines at the cable networks, mainly Nickelodeon. The bull case is that Viacom is steadily going private through one of the media industry's most aggressive share-buyback programs. That could lift the stock in 2013. Viacom repurchased more than 10% of its stock in its fiscal year ended in September, and a comparable buyback is expected in fiscal 2013.

維亞康可以獲取可觀的溢價收購，這要感謝其有價值的電纜資產。該公司的控制的雷石東，90。雖然，紅石計劃通過他的股份，他的孫子，意想不到的事情發生後，死亡的控股股東。在加貝利的分析師已經把維亞康姆旗下的私人市場價值為每股86美元，在2014年。 Viacom could fetch a sizable premium in a takeover, thanks to its valuable cable assets. The company is controlled by Sumner Redstone, 90. While Redstone plans to pass on his stake to his grandchildren, unexpected things can happen after the death of a controlling shareholder. Analysts at Gabelli have put Viacom's private-market value at $86 a share in 2014.

Western Digital 和對手的磁盤驅動器製造商 Seagate 陷入膠著因市場擔心未來的PC市場。兩個主要的球員在個位數的價格/收益比率進行交易。我們的偏好現在是Western Digital，今年股價已經嚴重低於Seagate。 37美元，股票五倍以下的預計利潤的份額7.65美元的。 WESTERN DIGITAL and rival disk-drive maker Seagate have languished amid worries about the future of the PC market. The two major players trade at single-digit price/earnings ratios. Our preference now is for Western Digital, which has badly trailed Seagate this year. At $37, the shares trade for less than five times projected profits of $7.65 a share.

磁盤驅動器市場仍然十分可觀，年銷售額500多萬元的存儲設備。雖然PC銷售沒有增長，對存儲的需求，和其他形式的記憶是太昂貴的存儲大量的數據。此外，由於 Seagate 和 Western Digital 控制超過80％的市場份額，價格壓力是不可能的。Western Digital 擁有強大的資產負債表，淨現金額為14億美元，或每股5美元。鑑於其盈利能力的公司，槓桿收購是可能的。The disk-drive market remains substantial, with annual sales of more than 500 million storage devices. While PC sales aren't growing, demand for storage is, and other forms of memory are too costly for storing massive amounts of data. And since Seagate and Western Digital control more than 80% of the market, pricing pressures are unlikely. Western Digital has a strong balance sheet, with $1.4 billion, or $5 per share, in net cash. Given that and its earnings power, a leveraged buyout of the company is possible.

本公司已承諾撥出其股票回購和股息的現金流的一半，並有足夠的空間以刺激支出，希捷在2.7％，僅為後者的一半。 Needham分析師理查德·Kugele具有很強的“買入”評級，西部數據和$46目標價。The company has pledged to earmark half of its free cash flow for stock buybacks and dividends, and there's room to boost the payout, which at 2.7% is just half of Seagate's. Needham analyst Richard Kugele has a Strong Buy rating on Western Digital and a $46 price target.

分析