Journal Of Trend: PC 市場5年後重新成長！台灣產業應加速提升! ( PC market growth again, What do Taiwan Industrial need to do? )

PC 市場暌違 6 年終成長！Acer 出貨逆轉 ASUS

據調研機構 Gartner 新發表的報告，今年第二季的全球個人電腦（PC）市場暌違 6 年、首度迎來季度年成長，幅度並來到 1.4%，包括美國、亞太等主要市場亦有成長表現。不過 Gartner 仍指出，成長的主因是受到商用市場成長所致、才抵銷了一般消費市場的衰退，暗示 PC 市場的狀況仍算不上回溫。

Gartner 並預估，PC 在商業市場的興盛，其實與企業升級並採購 Windows 10 裝置有關。但此動能預計會在兩年內因各企業的 Windows 10 裝置部署完畢而衰減。

至於各別廠商的表現，則以聯想（Lenovo）的 1,360 萬出貨最佳，第二至第五，則依序為惠普（HP）、戴爾（Dell）、蘋果（Apple），以及 Acer 宏碁。若以市佔率來看，前述的 5 大 PC 廠商，出貨市佔則依序是 21.9%、21.9%、16.8%、7.1%、6.4%。其中，聯想與惠普的出貨市佔之所以相同，是因前者僅以 1,360 萬出貨，微幅領先惠普的 1,358 萬台。

特別的是，同樣據 Gartner 發表的報告，2017 年第二季時，ASUS 華碩仍以 403.6 萬出貨，領先排名第六的 Acer 宏碁，但一年後宏碁除追過華碩，華碩亦沒有出現在 Gartner 發佈的排名上、被併入「Others」，但推測應仍維持第六大廠的位置。Gartner 並稱，所有排名前五的 PC 廠商，皆在 2018 年第二季實現出貨成長。

The PC market is finally picking up again, and HP is the big winner

The PC market isn't bleeding out on a gurney after all. IDC said on Tuesday that global shipments of PCs increased for the first time on an annualized basis since the first quarter of 2012. It noted the PC shipments increased 0.6 percent year over year during the first quarter of 2017.

The research firm admitted the bump is "arguably flat" but it actually came as a bit of a surprise. In fact, earlier models suggested that the PC market was going to continue its downward spiral with a decline of 1.8 percent during the quarter.

"Tight supplies of key components such as NAND and DRAM are affecting inventory dynamics and led a number of vendors to boost shipments to lock in supply ahead of further cost increases," IDC explained. "In addition, the market continued along a path of stabilization that began in the latter half of last year, especially as more commercial projects moved out of pilot mode and began shipments in earnest."

HP came out on top during the quarter, grabbing the market share crown for the first time since Q1
2013 with 13.1 million shipments. Lenovo, Dell, Apple and Acer filled out the top five vendors by

shipments during the quarter, with Dell noting 6.2 percent growth and Apple seeing 4.1 percent growth during the quarter.

IDC said the notebook market declined in the United States and was weak in Asia Pacific (outside of Japan where an emerging PC refreshment cycle was noticed). The company said notebook shipments helped stabilize the PC market in EMEA.

The PC market isn't as lively as it once was, though.

"The traditional PC market has been through a tough phase, with competition from tablets and smartphones as well as lengthening lifecycles pushing PC shipments down roughly 30% from a peak in 2011," said Jay Chou, research manager, IDC PCD Tracker.

phablet will domanate the total smartphone market from 2019 to 2027

This graphic shows a worldwide forecast for the market share of "phablets" in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The source estimates that smartphones with screens larger than 5 inches would take up more than half of the smartphone market in 2018, and nearly three quarters of the market in five years.

Big-screen smartphones known as phablets (short for phone-tablets) are expected to outsell regular-sized smartphones by 2019, research firm IDC said Wednesday. Shipments of phablets will "far outpace" the total smartphone market over the next five years, IDC said in a news release. Phablets have screen sizes of 5.5 inches to 7 inches.

Phablet shipments are seen climbing from 611 million units in 2017 to 1 billion units in 2021, representing a compound annual growth rate of 18.1%. During the same period, normal smartphones, those with displays under 5.5 inches, will decline 7.4%, IDC said.

IDC forecasts the total smartphone market will grow at a compound annual rate of 3% over the five-year period. Popular phablets today include Samsung's Galaxy Note 8, which has 6.3-inch display, and Apple's (AAPL) iPhone X, which has a 5.8-inch display.

Apple reportedly is planning an all-phablet lineup for fall 2018. It is working on new iPhone models with display sizes of 5.8, 6.1 and 6.5 inches, according to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

從 PC、Smartphone 使用者習慣看 ( from this web )

使用者還是需要 PC 做事、Game及Internet，Smartphone 主要是 Message、電話、SMS、Game及Internet，PC 需要增加其他應用例如 Home IOT server、other management，才能搶部分使用者增加 PC 使用時間。

智慧型手機平台主要贏家 Android，次要贏家 iOS 主控手機市場，將持續影響使用者之使用習慣，這趨勢使得 PC 市場持續衰退或緩慢成長，PC時代完全結束了嗎？應該沒有，若PC 增加其他應用例如 Home IOT server、other management、AI personal service for Smartphone，PC 就不能沒有.

而 Windows 把持 PC 市場使用者習慣也將持續減少，所以 Microsoft 策略應該有誤，Microsoft 策略應該是將PC 市場轉成PC 結合Phablet市場或PC 結合個人AI server市場，才能維持Windows 使用者習慣之人數，否則，還是有危機，因為使用者習慣改變了。Microsoft 平板都太厚太重，以致很難讓使用者習慣用Microsoft 平板。

分析

台灣整個產業結構與 PC及NB 關係很大，整個上市公司營業額電子業占68.9%，台灣PC及NB 需加速 ARM based PC、Tablet型NB、Phablet 型NB研發，同時大幅 cost-down，才能應付這轉變；NB、Phablet 型NB必須降價至 9 inch tablet 的 1.2倍及1.5倍，才不至於被 Phablet 占有所有市場。
再來與Mcriosoft 合作，將PC 市場轉成PC 結合Phablet市場或PC 結合個人AI server市場，才能維持Windows 使用者習慣之人數，否則，還是有危機。