Journal Of Trend: 產品策略

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2018年7月14日星期六

PC 市場5年後重新成長！台灣產業應加速提升! ( PC market growth again, What do Taiwan Industrial need to do? )

PC 市場暌違 6 年終成長！Acer 出貨逆轉 ASUS

據調研機構 Gartner 新發表的報告，今年第二季的全球個人電腦（PC）市場暌違 6 年、首度迎來季度年成長，幅度並來到 1.4%，包括美國、亞太等主要市場亦有成長表現。不過 Gartner 仍指出，成長的主因是受到商用市場成長所致、才抵銷了一般消費市場的衰退，暗示 PC 市場的狀況仍算不上回溫。

Gartner 並預估，PC 在商業市場的興盛，其實與企業升級並採購 Windows 10 裝置有關。但此動能預計會在兩年內因各企業的 Windows 10 裝置部署完畢而衰減。

至於各別廠商的表現，則以聯想（Lenovo）的 1,360 萬出貨最佳，第二至第五，則依序為惠普（HP）、戴爾（Dell）、蘋果（Apple），以及 Acer 宏碁。若以市佔率來看，前述的 5 大 PC 廠商，出貨市佔則依序是 21.9%、21.9%、16.8%、7.1%、6.4%。其中，聯想與惠普的出貨市佔之所以相同，是因前者僅以 1,360 萬出貨，微幅領先惠普的 1,358 萬台。

特別的是，同樣據 Gartner 發表的報告，2017 年第二季時，ASUS 華碩仍以 403.6 萬出貨，領先排名第六的 Acer 宏碁，但一年後宏碁除追過華碩，華碩亦沒有出現在 Gartner 發佈的排名上、被併入「Others」，但推測應仍維持第六大廠的位置。Gartner 並稱，所有排名前五的 PC 廠商，皆在 2018 年第二季實現出貨成長。

The PC market is finally picking up again, and HP is the big winner

The PC market isn't bleeding out on a gurney after all. IDC said on Tuesday that global shipments of PCs increased for the first time on an annualized basis since the first quarter of 2012. It noted the PC shipments increased 0.6 percent year over year during the first quarter of 2017.

The research firm admitted the bump is "arguably flat" but it actually came as a bit of a surprise. In fact, earlier models suggested that the PC market was going to continue its downward spiral with a decline of 1.8 percent during the quarter.

"Tight supplies of key components such as NAND and DRAM are affecting inventory dynamics and led a number of vendors to boost shipments to lock in supply ahead of further cost increases," IDC explained. "In addition, the market continued along a path of stabilization that began in the latter half of last year, especially as more commercial projects moved out of pilot mode and began shipments in earnest."

HP came out on top during the quarter, grabbing the market share crown for the first time since Q1
2013 with 13.1 million shipments. Lenovo, Dell, Apple and Acer filled out the top five vendors by

shipments during the quarter, with Dell noting 6.2 percent growth and Apple seeing 4.1 percent growth during the quarter.

IDC said the notebook market declined in the United States and was weak in Asia Pacific (outside of Japan where an emerging PC refreshment cycle was noticed). The company said notebook shipments helped stabilize the PC market in EMEA.

The PC market isn't as lively as it once was, though.

"The traditional PC market has been through a tough phase, with competition from tablets and smartphones as well as lengthening lifecycles pushing PC shipments down roughly 30% from a peak in 2011," said Jay Chou, research manager, IDC PCD Tracker.

phablet will domanate the total smartphone market from 2019 to 2027

This graphic shows a worldwide forecast for the market share of "phablets" in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022. The source estimates that smartphones with screens larger than 5 inches would take up more than half of the smartphone market in 2018, and nearly three quarters of the market in five years.

Big-screen smartphones known as phablets (short for phone-tablets) are expected to outsell regular-sized smartphones by 2019, research firm IDC said Wednesday. Shipments of phablets will "far outpace" the total smartphone market over the next five years, IDC said in a news release. Phablets have screen sizes of 5.5 inches to 7 inches.

Phablet shipments are seen climbing from 611 million units in 2017 to 1 billion units in 2021, representing a compound annual growth rate of 18.1%. During the same period, normal smartphones, those with displays under 5.5 inches, will decline 7.4%, IDC said.

IDC forecasts the total smartphone market will grow at a compound annual rate of 3% over the five-year period. Popular phablets today include Samsung's Galaxy Note 8, which has 6.3-inch display, and Apple's (AAPL) iPhone X, which has a 5.8-inch display.

Apple reportedly is planning an all-phablet lineup for fall 2018. It is working on new iPhone models with display sizes of 5.8, 6.1 and 6.5 inches, according to KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

從 PC、Smartphone 使用者習慣看 ( from this web )

使用者還是需要 PC 做事、Game及Internet，Smartphone 主要是 Message、電話、SMS、Game及Internet，PC 需要增加其他應用例如 Home IOT server、other management，才能搶部分使用者增加 PC 使用時間。

智慧型手機平台主要贏家 Android，次要贏家 iOS 主控手機市場，將持續影響使用者之使用習慣，這趨勢使得 PC 市場持續衰退或緩慢成長，PC時代完全結束了嗎？應該沒有，若PC 增加其他應用例如 Home IOT server、other management、AI personal service for Smartphone，PC 就不能沒有.

而 Windows 把持 PC 市場使用者習慣也將持續減少，所以 Microsoft 策略應該有誤，Microsoft 策略應該是將PC 市場轉成PC 結合Phablet市場或PC 結合個人AI server市場，才能維持Windows 使用者習慣之人數，否則，還是有危機，因為使用者習慣改變了。Microsoft 平板都太厚太重，以致很難讓使用者習慣用Microsoft 平板。

分析

台灣整個產業結構與 PC及NB 關係很大，整個上市公司營業額電子業占68.9%，台灣PC及NB 需加速 ARM based PC、Tablet型NB、Phablet 型NB研發，同時大幅 cost-down，才能應付這轉變；NB、Phablet 型NB必須降價至 9 inch tablet 的 1.2倍及1.5倍，才不至於被 Phablet 占有所有市場。
再來與Mcriosoft 合作，將PC 市場轉成PC 結合Phablet市場或PC 結合個人AI server市場，才能維持Windows 使用者習慣之人數，否則，還是有危機。

2013年11月16日星期六

2013 星巴克如何改善獲利 ( Starbucks raises 2013 profit improvement )

Starbucks raises 2013 profit outlook

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Starbucks (US:sbux) late Thursday raised its fiscal 2013 profit outlook after topping Wall Street's earnings for its fiscal second quarter on the strength of its U.S. business and a decline in coffee futures prices. For the quarter ended March 31, Starbucks said profit rose 26% to $390.4 million, or 51 cents a share. Analysts had expected 48 cents. Revenue rose 11% to $3.6 billion, while same-store sales grew 6%. Operating margins climbed to 15.3% from 13.5%. For its September 2013 fiscal year, Starbucks said it would earn between $2.12 to $2.18 a share. Its old forecast was $2.06 to $2.15 a share. However, Starbucks maintained its outlook for margin improvement, revenue and same-store sales growth. Starbucks shares fell 1.6% to $59.50 in late trade. Ahead of the report, the stock was trading near its five-year high of $62.

舊金山（市場） - 星巴克（SBUX）週四晚超出華爾街的盈利財年第二季度其在美國的業務上的實力和咖啡期貨價格下跌後，上調其2013財年的盈利前景。截至二零一零年三月三十一日止第一季度，星巴克表示，利潤增長26％，至390400000美元，或每股51美分。分析師此前預期的48美分。收入增長11％，至36億美元，而同店銷售額增長了6％。經營利潤率從13.5％攀升至15.3％。 2013年9月的財年，星巴克說，它會之間賺取$2.12至$2.18每股。其舊的預測為2.06美元每股2.15美元。然而，星巴克維持其毛利率改善，收入及同店銷售增長的前景。星巴克股價下跌1.6％，至尾盤59.50美元。報告之前，股票是其五年高點62美元附近交投。

STARBUCKS PLANS TO BREW A STRONGER PROFIT IN 2013

NEW YORK (AP) — Starbucks Corp. plans to accelerate growth and brew up a stronger profit in the year ahead, with CEO Howard Schultz noting that customers of all walks of life consider its drinks an "affordable luxury" even in challenging economic times. 紐約（美聯社） - 星巴克計劃，加速增長和釀造了一個更強大的利潤在未來的一年中，公司首席執行官霍華德·舒爾茨指出，各行各業的客戶認為其飲料“買得起的奢侈品”，即使在富有挑戰性的經濟時代。

SBUX profit increase a lot due to their product strategy

The Seattle-based company said Thursday that global revenue at cafes open at least a year rose 6 percent in its fiscal fourth quarter, driven by higher customer traffic. The measure is a key gauge because it strips out the impact of newly opened and closed locations. In the U.S, the figure rose by 7 percent. 總部位於西雅圖的公司週四表示，在咖啡館打開全球收入每年至少在其財年第四季度上升了6％，帶動更高的客戶流量。這項措施是一個重要指標，因為它剔除了新打開和關閉位置的影響。在中美，這一數字上升了7％。

Citing the strength of its core business and a pipeline of new products — such as improved baked goods and a single-serve brewer that was introduced this fall —Starbucks lifted its dividend and guidance for the fiscal year ending in September 2013. 援引2013年9月結束的財年，其核心業務的實力和管道的新產品 - 如改善焙烤食品和單發球啤酒，介紹了今年秋天星巴克解除其股息和指導。

In the year ahead, Starbucks said it also plans to open 1,300 net new stores, up from the 1,063 it opened in the just completed year.

Correct promotion made SBUX revenue growth

The $5 latte pioneered by Starbucks has long been a hallmark of financial indulgence for many Americans. But in a conference call with analysts, Schultz said that he wouldn't "define Starbucks as a luxury brand." Instead, he said Starbucks was positioned as an everyday luxury that anyone could afford, giving the company the flexibility to navigate even through a weak economy.

In the latest quarter, for example, the sales spike in the U.S. was partly the result of the company's "treat receipt" promotion, which offers customers in the morning a discount if they bring back their receipt in the afternoon. Executives decided to go ahead with the promotion after noticing traffic trends slowing in the summer.

"We weren't planning on doing it this year, but when we saw that slowing in June and July, we decided to go back to the tried and true," said Troy Alstead, Starbucks' chief financial officer.

Although consumer packaged goods remain a relatively a small portion of Starbucks' business, revenue for that segment rose 33 percent to $393 million in the quarter. As Starbucks faces intensifying competition from fast-food chains offering specialty coffees, the company has been expanding into other areas, such as its Evolution fresh juices, Refreshers energy drinks and the purchase of a small chain of San Francisco bakeries earlier this year. The Verismo, a single-serve coffee brewer, began appearing in stores this fall.

In the China Asia Pacific region, where Starbucks is intensifying expansion, the company said sales at cafes open at least a year rose 10 percent. In its struggling Europe region, however, the sales figure fell 1 percent, dragged down by weak results in Germany. The company said the closures of underperforming stores and the licensing of some of its cafes in the region is expected to improve results in coming quarters. 在中國亞太地區，星巴克正在加緊擴張，該公司表示，在咖啡館開張至少一年的銷售增長了10％。然而，在其苦苦掙扎的歐洲地區，銷售數字下降了1％，在德國的疲弱業績拖累。該公司表示，關閉表現欠佳的店鋪，並在該地區的一些網吧許可預計在未來幾個季度的改善結果。

For the period ended Sept. 30, Starbucks earned $359 million, or 46 cents per share. That's up slightly from $358.5 million, or 47 cents per share, a year ago, when a fewer number of outstanding shares boosted the per-share results. The year-ago results also benefited from a gain related to a real estate sale.

Revenue rose 11 percent to $3.36 billion.Analysts expected profit of 45 cents per share on revenue of $3.39 billion.

For fiscal 2013, the company now expects to earn between $2.06 and $2.15 per share. That's up from its previous outlook of $2.04 to $2.14 per share and above the $2.14 analysts expected, according to FactSet. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to 21 cents, an increase of 24 percent.

Shares rose $2.82, or 6.1 percent, to $49.44 in after-market trading. The stock had closed up 72 cents to $46.62 in regular trading.

星巴克火車開店首登瑞士火車車廂

每天在趕往上班的途中，悠閒地享受一杯氣味香濃的星巴克咖啡是多少通勤族的夢想？如今連鎖咖啡店星巴克14日宣布要在瑞士的一節火車車廂上推出首家咖啡分店，首創星巴克有史以來最小的店面。

星巴克現已成為買房的加值指標之一，由於其對顧客的服務優質，人們在聽到星巴克要進駐自己所處社區時，感受到的往往是生活品質的提升。星巴克在台灣由北到南擴展，其品牌形象顯著，所到之地往往給人地方持續發展的願景。然而店面租金為星巴克拓展門市的最大阻礙，以往星巴克在開店時，只顧著找人潮最多商機無限的好地點而忽略了昂貴的租金，因此發生像在北京國貿一期商圈拓展失敗而關店的案例；於是近幾年星巴克有了新的思維，那便是店面小、型式卻獨特的概念門市，為此星巴克積極地在世界各地擴展。

「概念門市」，指的是獨一無二的店面型態！像是在日本的貨櫃屋門市、荷蘭阿姆斯特丹的「實驗室」門市，同時由於店面狹小,經營模式就有如麥當勞的「得來速」一樣，不是讓人們駐足逗留於此，而是透過藝術與建築物的結合讓人們好奇這是什麼玩意兒，進一步欣賞、認同而擁有不同於以往的消費體驗，藉由這樣的設計，提供更經濟、便捷，且有利營收的銷售模式。星巴克此次和瑞士國家鐵路公司（SBB）合作，在日內瓦到聖加倫的雙層火車上，特闢一節車廂開分店。列車外觀有星巴克商標，內部則以木製裝潢為主。

列車上層為內用區，含無座吧、甜點櫃等，下層則為外帶區。星巴克概念設計總監穆勒說，這次火車分店設計須考慮火車會不斷移動、空間有限等不同於以往的經營元素，預定下周四（21日）將開始營運，預估每天將會有2班次列車的乘客，可以享受到星巴克咖啡。此外，SBB也發布聲明，9個月試賣期過後，端看星巴克整體營運的成效，才能評估是否要再另闢其它火車分店。

分析

星巴克知道如何分析客源，規劃新產品、店面位置、帶動更高的客戶流量，當然可以改善獲利。
就如同 NU SKIN 推出專業防老產品，獲利大幅提升。
台灣廠商要思考全球行銷、產品差異化及創新，不要只以中國大陸為市場，中國大陸政策只照顧陸商，利用台灣資金、人才，祖國是在做產業升級，台灣卻面臨政府高經常性支出找稅收及政府歲入；
由星巴克 weekly chart 分析發現，再一波噴出美股將面臨修正壓力，台股就更弱了；
餐飲服務業走向全球品牌化，台灣餐飲服務業須加速全球化，政府更應該知道該如何因應，讓台灣上市公司願意持續在台灣上市，一旦，台灣企業持續全球化，會凸顯台灣政府『對投資環境貢獻/政府經常花費』將是世界級低，也就是政府經常花費過高卻對企業、投資率及政府支出之勞工福利幫助很低，這種政府如何對抗大陸、東南亞投資優惠吸收台灣資金、人才；
建議行政院、經建會、經濟部、財政部全部改組，由民間借調能大力整頓中央政府之勞工經理人擔任，這樣才能產生像南韓李明博這種領導人，台灣經兩黨輪流執政 13 年，我們只看見平均經濟成長率一直往下、投資率遲緩。

2013年10月23日星期三

Apple Inc., 將走精品行銷路線？艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)將領導蘋果零售事業部 ( Apple Inc., Marketing will be walking into the luxury fashion style? Angela Ahrendts will lead Apple's retail division )

蘋果挖角英時尚大咖：很榮幸

艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)成功擦亮有157年歷史的英國時尚名牌 Burberry，擔任執行長7年來營運成績斐然，她接受蘋果公司邀請，將出任零售與網路商店資深副總裁，轉戰科技界。

　　來自美國的艾倫茲，2006年出任Burberry執行長，將這家老牌精品商改頭換面，蛻變為全球時尚數位零售店，創下傲人營運佳績，去年薪資加紅利達1,690萬英鎊，寫下英國上市公司企業執行長最高紀錄。艾倫茲說，她很榮幸加入蘋果，「我一直很敬佩蘋果產品的創新，以及對民眾生活的影響及服務」，希望可以盡一己之力，在快速變動的世界裡，協助蘋果繼續創造成功與領先。

　　艾倫茲的新職是蘋果新設的職位，她預定明年春天正式走馬上任，主要負責蘋果零售店及網路店的策略方向、擴大及運作，直接向蘋果執行長庫克(Tim Cook)報告。艾倫茲加入Burberry前，曾在時裝品牌Liz Claiborne任職執行副總裁，並擔任Donna Karan International總裁。

　　庫克表示，非常高興艾倫茲加入蘋果的團隊，艾倫茲之前的工作已充分顯示，她是一位十分傑出的領導人。艾倫茲說，她選擇Burberry在很好的經營情況下離開，執行長一職將由與她合作多年的Burberry創意總監貝里(Christopher Bailey)接任。

艾倫茲將離職的消息傳出後，Burberry在倫敦股市股價走跌，到上午11時左右，大跌4.73%，報1,510便士。

Apple Hires Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts to Head Retail Efforts

Apple store will change the style ?

Apple said late Monday that it has hired Burberry CEO Angela Ahrendts to serve as head of its retail efforts.Ahrendts, who will join in the spring, will serve as senior VP and will report to CEO Tim Cook. She was among a list of people seen as top candidates for the position.

“I am profoundly honored to join Apple in this newly created position next year, and very much look forward to working with the global teams to further enrich the consumer experience on and offline,” Ahrendts said in a statement. “I have always admired the innovation and impact Apple products and services have on people’s lives and hope in some small way I can help contribute to the company’s continued success and leadership in changing the world.”

Apple has had some key vacancies in its retail operations since Ron Johnson left the company to run J.C. Penney. Johnson was replaced by former Dixons head John Browett, who was ousted by Cook a year ago. Another retail executive, VP Jerry McDougal, resigned in January.

Ahrendts, 53, has been CEO of Burberry since July 2006. From 1998 to 2006, she was an executive VP at Liz Claiborne, and also served at Henri Bendel and Donna Karan International.

Apple and Burberry collaborated in September, with Apple giving the retailer early access to the iPhone 5s to photograph the company’s London runway show.

Burberry 換設計師當家

Apple Inc., think about to join wearable computing market

　　英國精品業龍頭Burberry集團(Burberry Group Plc)，15日任命貝里(Christopher Bailey)接替艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)擔任執行長，讓一位經驗尚淺的設計師率領Burberry度過產業趨緩的難關。Burberry宣布，讓Burberry化身時尚界數位先驅的艾倫茲，將在2014年期間跳槽蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)，由現年42歲的貝里接下執行長棒子，兼任他原本創意長的職務。

　　倫敦桑福德伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)分析師歐特里(Mario Ortelli)說，貝里接棒之際精品業正在極化，他必須決定是要朝更高檔發展，挑戰普拉達(Prada)與路易威登(Louis Vuitton)等品牌，還是以沒那麼貴的產品鎖定更廣的客群。

　　艾倫茲掌舵將近8年期間，Burberry營收翻逾1倍，股價則翻漲2倍多。

　　歐特里提到，艾倫茲在公司走到十字路口時離開，沒有明確的發展策略。「我們認為，在像Burberry這樣龐大且複雜的公司中，即使像貝里這樣才華洋溢的人才，也很難有足夠時間同時扮演好兩種角色。」

　　自2001年從古馳(Gucci)加入Burberry以來，貝里把一家以格紋大衣著稱的英國公司，轉型成全方位精品業者。他運用新色彩和材料活化Burberry的經典設計，並推出Prorsum和Brit成衣系列等高價產品，以及訂製和童裝。

　　這位曾在Donna Karan任職的得獎設計師，將在接任執行長時繼續掌管Burberry的創意部門。身為2009年接下的創意長，他也負責Burberry包括廣告和店面設計的整體形象。

　　匯豐(HSBC)分析師蘭姆柏(Erwan Rambourg)表示，雖然貝里已證明是位非凡的設計師，但以執行長之姿經營公司的表現還有待觀察。

分析

艾倫茲(Angela Ahrendts)將領導蘋果零售事業部是 Apple Inc., 很好的佈局；
若能將精品風格結合穿載式裝置、價格策略，會讓 Apple Inc., 走出自已的成長路線；
以 Apple Inc., 產品，iPhone、iPod 、 iPad 、 Mac 、 pple TV box、iCould、Apple store 及 iTune 來看，沒有 Apple smart HDTV 將使 Apple Inc., 減少相當多營收，獲利也會減少；
由 Microsoft、Apple、Chrome 搜尋趨勢看，Apple Inc., 只要再多開放一些 iOS 功能且增加 office 常用之軟體，是可以再度增加市場占有率；