總體而言,華爾街的戰略家看好股票,2013年企業的利潤空間在不斷擴大,雖然,它已經處於歷史高位,這是第二次看值得考慮的的各種reasons.One原因。Overall, Wall Street's strategists are bullish on stocks for 2013 for various reasons.One reason worth taking a second look at is expanding corporate profit margins, which are already at historic highs.
But the equity analysts and the companies they cover disagree.
這裡有一個圖表高盛公司的大衛·考斯汀分析師的預測,明年為S&P 500的利潤: Here's a chart from Goldman's David Kostin showing the analysts' forecast for S&P 500 margins next year:
根據摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亞當·帕克,越來越多的企業比以往任何時候都相信他們的利潤會走揚:According to Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker, more companies than ever believe their margins are going up:
在最近的一份報告中,BMO的Brian Belski共享的圖呈現出利潤率長期上升趨勢。In a recent note, BMO's Brian Belski shared ths chart showing a secular uptrend in margins. Deutsche Bank's David Bianco has also pointed this out before. Both point to lower interest rates and shift in sales toward overseas regions where tax rates are lower.
這是很難想像的利潤率要高得多,從這裡,但是這是一個參數,也取得了一年前的這個時候。It's hard to imagine profit margins going much higher from here, but this was an argument that was also made this time a year ago.
美國景氣由美國汽車產業重要景氣觀察指標、美國不動產證卷商品重要景氣觀察指標一再顯示美國景氣緩慢增溫,失業率也是緩慢下降。The American boom observed indicators from the U.S. auto industry boom, U.S. Real Estate Securities, commodity boom OUTCOME MEASURES repeatedly show the U.S. economy is slowly warming, the unemployment rate is also slow decline.
再由2013年許多美國企業的利潤空間在不斷擴大,正是美國景氣增溫速度正加速中;Many U.S. corp. profit margins of 2013 in expanding precisely, so the American boom warming rate is accelerating in;
2013 美國景氣看遲緩,但實際是景氣緩慢不斷再擴大,由金融、汽車、石化產業看的很明顯;2013 U.S. boom look slow, but the actual boom slowly warming continue to expand, and by the financial, automotive, and petrochemical industries obviously;
IMF:西國恐加劇衰退 ( Spain economic will be worst ) 國際貨幣基金(IMF)上周五公布西班牙年度經濟預測報告,在失業率迭創新高的困境下,IMF再度看壞西國今明年的經濟前景,預料衰退會持續擴大。IMF警告西國政府,若無法儘速扭轉投資人的悲觀情緒,恐被融資市場拒於門外。IMF上周五發布的展望報告中,將這個歐元區第4大經濟體今年的國內生產毛額(GDP),從先前預估的萎縮1.5%下調到萎縮1.7%。明年的GDP估值,則由原先的負成長0.6%下修到負成長1.2%。
主因仍在於印鈔、低利率未創造民間投資率、就業率,失業率、經濟就無法改善,消費信心指數就會惡化,GDP成長性下滑,如何刺激民間投資率。 ( The main reason in the money Printing in void is low interest rates not to create private investment rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, the economy can not improve, the index of consumer confidence will deteriorate, GDP growth fell, how to stimulate the private investment rate )