Journal Of Trend: S&P 500 許多公司獲利率持續成長 ( Wall Street Is Unbelievably Optimistic About Profit Margins )

These 3 Charts Show That Wall Street Is Unbelievably Optimistic About Profit Margins

總體而言，華爾街的戰略家看好股票，2013年企業的利潤空間在不斷擴大，雖然，它已經處於歷史高位，這是第二次看值得考慮的的各種reasons.One原因。Overall, Wall Street's strategists are bullish on stocks for 2013 for various reasons.One reason worth taking a second look at is expanding corporate profit margins, which are already at historic highs.

A slew of experts like GMO's Jeremy Grantham, SocGen's Albert Edwards, LPL Financial's Jeff Kleintop, and John Hussman think these margins are unsustainable.

But the equity analysts and the companies they cover disagree.

這裡有一個圖表高盛公司的大衛·考斯汀分析師的預測，明年為S＆P 500的利潤： Here's a chart from Goldman's David Kostin showing the analysts' forecast for S&P 500 margins next year:

根據摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的亞當·帕克，越來越多的企業比以往任何時候都相信他們的利潤會走揚：According to Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker, more companies than ever believe their margins are going up:

在最近的一份報告中，BMO的Brian Belski共享的圖呈現出利潤率長期上升趨勢。In a recent note, BMO's Brian Belski shared ths chart showing a secular uptrend in margins. Deutsche Bank's David Bianco has also pointed this out before. Both point to lower interest rates and shift in sales toward overseas regions where tax rates are lower.

這是很難想像的利潤率要高得多，從這裡，但是這是一個參數，也取得了一年前的這個時候。It's hard to imagine profit margins going much higher from here, but this was an argument that was also made this time a year ago.

財報─富國銀行第三季獲利上升22%至49.4億美元

富國銀行( Wells Fargo )(WFC-US)周五公布，第三季獲利上升22%。該全美第四大銀行說，營收與抵押貸款收入大幅增加，信用亦轉強。該銀行風險主管Mike Loughlin說：「由於整體企業與消費者的財務情況轉強，第三季的信用品質持續改善，許多地區的房屋市場亦轉佳，且我們持續減少問題資產，並從事新的高品質貸款，」

但因營收成長不如預期，盤前交易中，富國銀行股價下跌2.2%至34.45美元。富國銀行說，第三季提供抵押貸款1390億美元，第二季為1310億。

該銀行公布第三季獲利49.4億美元，或每股88美分，去年同期為40.6億，或每股72美分。第三季營收上升8.1%至212.1億美元。接受路透社調查的分析師平均預估，該銀行第三季每股獲利87美分，營收為214.7億美元。

分析

美國景氣由美國汽車產業重要景氣觀察指標、美國不動產證卷商品重要景氣觀察指標一再顯示美國景氣緩慢增溫，失業率也是緩慢下降。The American boom observed indicators from the U.S. auto industry boom, U.S. Real Estate Securities, commodity boom OUTCOME MEASURES repeatedly show the U.S. economy is slowly warming, the unemployment rate is also slow decline.
再由2013年許多美國企業的利潤空間在不斷擴大，正是美國景氣增溫速度正加速中；Many U.S. corp. profit margins of 2013 in expanding precisely, so the American boom warming rate is accelerating in;
2013 美國景氣看遲緩，但實際是景氣緩慢不斷再擴大，由金融、汽車、石化產業看的很明顯；2013 U.S. boom look slow, but the actual boom slowly warming continue to expand, and by the financial, automotive, and petrochemical industries obviously;